The Dynamics of Russia – North Korea – China Trilateral Balancing: Implications for the Indo Pacific Region

Implications for the Indo Pacific Region

Abstract

The recent visit by North Korean President Kim Jong Un to Russia and the Summit meeting with President Putin followed by a proposed defence agreement aimed at arms and ammunitions supply has raised several interesting questions as to how this would affect the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and more importantly how this will play out in the larger Indo Pacific region. In particular, Russia has reportedly agreed to sell satellite technology, and North Korea in turn has agreed to supply ammunitions to Russia despite threats of further sanctions from the West. What is obvious in this development is the apprehensions on the part of the Western countries that are eager to end the war. But what is not obvious is why Russia did not bank on its traditional partner China which is a much more closer ally than North Korea and which is even more antagonistic to the West, particularly the U.S. Other compelling questions are: how China would take such development given North Korea considered to be under its own sphere of influence and hence the suspicions over the motivations of such an entente between Russia and North Korea; why Pyongyang in turn looks to Russia when it has been a traditional ally of China and finally what possibilities exist for all the three countries aligning together against the West despite differences. Was this summit meeting a reaction to the trilateral meeting that took place in August 2023 between U.S. – Japan and South Korea? The aim, hence, is to inform the motivations behind this relationship and how this could be understood. The article tries to answer the above issues by tracing the background relations and describing and analyzing how the possibility of China-North Korea-Russia trilateral relations as against the existing U.S. – Japan – South Korea combination will play out and its repercussions on the Indo-Pacific region. It argues that Russia seeking defence relations with North Korea ‘other than China’ will have serious repercussions on the security and stability of the larger Indo-Pacific region.